List of p(doom) values

p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.

• <0.01%

  Yann LeCun

  one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta

  (less likely than an asteroid)
• 10%

  Vitalik Buterin

  Ethereum founder

  (Specifically means AI takeover)
• 10%

  Geoff Hinton

  one of three godfathers of AI

  (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
• 14%

  Machine learning researchers

  (From 2022, median value is 5%)
• 15%

  Lina Khan

  head of FTC
• 10-20%

  Paul Christiano

  (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
• 10-25%

  Dario Amodei

  CEO of Anthropic
• 20%

  Yoshua Bengio

  one of three godfathers of AI
• 20-30%

  Elon Musk

  CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
• 5-50%

  Emmet Shear

  ex-CEO of Twitch, ex-short term CEO of OpenAI
• 30%

  AI Safety Researchers

  (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
• 33%

  Scott Alexander

  Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
• 35%

  Eli Lifland
• 40%

  AI engineer

  (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
• 50%

  Holden Karnofsky

  Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
• 10-90%

  Jan Leike

  alignment lead at OpenAI
• 60%

  Zvi Mowshowitz

  AI researcher
• >80%

  Dan Hendrycks

  Head of Center for AI Safety
• >99%

  Eliezer Yudkowsky

  Founder of MIRI

What about yours?

We've built the AI Outcomes App to help you think about how probable the various outcomes from AI are.